ACTC ... Stock for the Century!

[Ceasar de Cuenca]

Davea0828
I have been thinking the same and was discussing this with my brother.
IND submiited 11/19/2009
IND Approved 11/22/2010
Release of data ??? Thinking before Thanksgiving to give everyone special news to talk about while with family.
Also looking back 11/17/2008 - ACT comments on Tech platform w/ non destruction of embroyo.


Ceasar ~ would you mind speculating on the pps increases you believe we may see with the various announcements? Similar to a line graph and the future events/pps. Its always good to read your viewpoint.

I also remember there being some type of compensation if Caldwell had the pps over X-amount before end of 2010. Do you know if the same stipulation is in place with regard to end of 2011?

Hi Invest,

This is a conditional guess based on the assumption that the six events I noted above occurs in the next 6 months.
If this is the case, the minimum price of the Stock by July 1st will be $5.00
This projection is a very wide band with a low of $5 and a high of $20.00
If you add, 2 other qualifiers like the filing/approval for a Blood/Platelet IND, then the band gets wider with a low of still $5.00 to a high of $25.00

The last factor that can blow the high end into the heavens is: If the Planned PR shows Photoreceptor Recovery and
Improved Visual Acuity... then all bets are off. I do not know how high this thing will go!

Specially if the next DMSB Report for the 1st Cohort shows the same results as the PR for the first 2 patients.

Best,

Cuenca

[robertgoulet]

ceasar, please explain how u derived these PPS numbers

[Ceasar de Cuenca]

ceasar, please explain how u derived these PPS numbers

Hi Robert,

I used the Lipitor comment to come up with a buyout number for ACTC.

Then, I used the latest revenue number of 12B to find an equivalent Company with
the same 12B revenue.

Genentech is the closest company, same industry, reasonably same product.
And they were acquired by Roche for 47B, several years ago.

I used the 47B as the Future Value.
I then calculated back to the Present Value at 8% and 7 years. In the old calculation, I used 10 years, but I decided to use 7 years this time to account for the China JV and the latest Lanza comment from the 2 patients.

The NPV of ACTC at 47B based on the above is 27B ONLY FOR THE STARGARDT'S AND DRY AMD PRODUCT LINES.

I then used a 50% error factor to reduce the amount to 14B.

Then, I used 2.5 Billion Shares as the future number of shares for ACTC which will include the dilution/lawsuits.

This number is $6.00/share.

I pushed it back to $5.00 as the Low End of the Band.

There is no way, I can guesstimate the high end number for the band because there are just too many variables:
1. Market reaction to Blood/Platelets Filing. And the possibility of a 3rd JV for the Blood/Platelet Product LInes.
2. Market reaction to 2 BioPharma Partners buying in the open market.
3. Market reaction to the first 2 patients impending PR.
4. Market reaction to the DMSB data on the first cohort on the 2 US Trials duplicating the results of the first 2 patients.
5. Market reaction if the UK dosing come up with the same results as the US first 2 patients.

As a matter of fact my $20.00/25.00 high end on this band will be thrown out of the window, if the five conditional variables I noted above come to pass.

Best,

Cuenca

[TORCH]

There’s truth to the old Wall Street adage that says a stock is
worth what somebody is willing to pay for it. In essence, that’s
because the price of a stock is determined by buyers and sellers.
As they weigh information about the company, the economy
and their own investment goals, investors decide
whether they are willing to pay more or less for a stock.
Simply put, the price of an individual stock is determined by
supply and demand. The supply of stock is based on the number
of shares a company has issued. The demand is created by
people who want to buy those shares from investors who
already own them. The more that people desire to own a
stock, the more they are willing to pay for it.
But the supply of shares of any stock is limited. Investors only
can buy shares of stock that are already owned by someone else.
So if one person wants to buy, somebody else has to sell, and
vice versa. If a lot of people want to buy at the current price and
not a lot of people want to sell, the price goes up until more
people are willing to sell.When the price gets so high that buyers
no longer want the stock, the price starts to drop.(This was an article in the WSJ)




CDC,

Another great answer. I go with what you have said in the past as a measure of WORTH also. The field is going to be such a "HOT" sector that people are going to want this stock or these STOCKS..no matter what. I feel that the price for a period of time will go crazy. I think it will be like the "Tech Bubble" but with Results. When the
"Tech boom" was in play no one knew how to make money from "INTERNET BASED COMPANINES"...the bulk of the companies because of Venture investment money were worth millions on paper but were not able to drive a profit. (Unless they were selling a tangible product) I feel this sector will be different because companies that are succesful will be able to have products rolling through...

of course my thoughts are just that...my thoughts..LOL
Torch

[Malvas75]

Thank's Cuenca.
And I remembar you that Cuenca has reported his thought in short-term horizon but the title of the thread is about THE CENTURY!!!

Can you imagine what ACT will be in 5-10-15-20 years?

[stockfodder]

Also, isn't it amazing that the company of the century decided to go for the 'easiest' trials to get validated and yet, probably the most 'important' since the eye is about the only organ in our body that can't be replaced with transplant surgery.

The other organ that comes to mind, irony intended, is the brain.
Any thoughts on stem cell research headed in that directed...? Alzheimers and other general-die off issues of the brain cells and regeneration? (beyond its ability to see this hesc science in the headlights...) Is this just another variation of the difficult work that Geron picked up and set down with the spine, and the highest or the hanging fruit?


By the way this thread has gone bananas, dancing bananas, just type the number eleven, hit go advanced and this little critter shows up 11 instead of the number 11... that is where my mind stopped a few minutes ago as I was trying to follow this thread, it had the same effect as the leiderhosen icon that Kennyboy used to use, or the seizure inducing flashing star icon. I was writing a post using two thousand and eleven and a dancing icon appeared 2011 and I decided it was a sign and went away instead of posting... should be interesting tomorrow as people try to post about 11cents... I half expect that if someone refers to the pps going bananas is will appear as actc pps goes 11's...

[stockfodder]

My original pre11 thought was that as it becomes the stock of the century, is the brain cell the moonshot?
Or is there a more complicated and difficult hesc target for treatment such as the liver?
then I got so easily distracted, sorry!!! I mean 11 11 11

[rickrick]

Oh yeh, the brain.

Should be lots of good stuff there. I had mentioned before that our more potent RPE cells might have been one reason China became interested in us.

They have been treating parkinsons with adult RPE cells but from what I remember they seemed to have not increased results lately.

So perhaps they see our more robust hESC derived RPE cells as a path to better results. I will be glad to see us begin to treat brain disorders here in the US someday.

I am also of the belief that stem cells along with nano technology will be how human like artificial intelligent comes into being.

[Reignday]

11

[Reignday]

11 I had to try it 11


maybe .... at eleven cents a share I would have to be bananas to not increase my position

[stockfodder]

11 I had to try it 11


maybe .... at eleven cents a share I would have to be bananas to not increase my position

think Dr. Seuss after a bad day, sipping a glass of red wine... I would rather rap this one up but I am not feeling the beat:

A more cynical poster is now bound to say,
if you see 11 (eleven), it's on its way
Down to a nickel, only then will it pay
so don't invest any more pennies until that day...

after all this 11 eleven is a sign from above
a slip is a slip and dilution a shove
they may be correct, or it may be the wine
but a 11 on wall street is surely sign!

Now I'm in so far, I'm in over my head
that I can't hear this voice, so I've decided instead
To buy more tomorrow and again the next day
I'm sure to go mad, if I keep rhyming this way 111111

Turning off the computer now...

[stockfodder]

But before I turn off the computer, this type of thread, about the potential of this stock and this company, is going to be a subject that we return to again and again and I really enjoy the opportunity to hear people weigh in on it. These past few months I have opened up my ears and listened as people I ran into discuss the physical ailments in their lives and it is interesting to focus a little on what might become available for them in the arena of stem cell treatments. I look forward to the day when people that I run into also are able to talk about their own knowledge of stem cells and how they have played a role in healing... good thread and thanks,

[pacman]

Had an interesting conversation with my favourite Vietnamese waiter today about the Chinese buying up Australia, they have an interest in whats below our surface and are buying up loads of miners rights under our farms, vineyards, dairy herds, sheep stations, you name it. Seems its possible to own whats below the surface without owning whats above it... (this is something AZ would know more about).

Anyway,the point I am making here, obtuse as it appears, is that many Chinese individuals, families and companies have loads of money and are willing to spend it, and speculation is in their blood. According to GR ACT is holding hands with them right now and I am sure they are smiling broadly, I can hear them say,
"We've got the heart and soul of RegenMed in our hands now and we are about to blitz humanity with it."

Its highly possible that within the next few months, given what we have heard and what we know about the animal models, ACT shareholders are in for the rides of their lives. JMHO.

[wewillwin]

We are seeing regenerative medicine start its small steps forward and the world of chemically induced treatements will fall by the wayside.When all that is in ACTC'S pot begins to boil this company will be traveling along in a lear jet while others are riding in Orville and Wilbur Wrights first ride!!!!!

[All in J]

I'm hoping the process will speed up through time. Lanza just needs to clone himself a few times to really step up the pase.

[Ceasar de Cuenca]

But before I turn off the computer, this type of thread, about the potential of this stock and this company, is going to be a subject that we return to again and again and I really enjoy the opportunity to hear people weigh in on it. These past few months I have opened up my ears and listened as people I ran into discuss the physical ailments in their lives and it is interesting to focus a little on what might become available for them in the arena of stem cell treatments. I look forward to the day when people that I run into also are able to talk about their own knowledge of stem cells and how they have played a role in healing... good thread and thanks,

Hi Stockfodder,

In terms of the next level of complexity ACTC have already begun and will possibly file for the first IND for Platelets or Blood. Then you have the bone marrow. And then, the white blood cells and its teaching ability to fight cancer. And these all by themselves are individually huge.

Then next will be your musculoskeletal systems which are also huge. The simplest of which, and we have done some preclinicals is PAD.

The brain which you have referred to... Lanza will probably would want to tackle. It would be exciting for him plus it is relatively also rejection free area.

The liver is also interesting, as it has its own regenerative powers and grows back. Thus it can be aided by terminal cells to grow better after resection to remove cancer/tumors.

And yes, ACTC will be opening up this new frontier in Medicine.

[rickrick]

Ceasar, by PAD are you refering to the joint areas.

[Ceasar de Cuenca]

Ceasar, by PAD are you refering to the joint areas.

It is Peripheral Artery Disease. See: Peripheral Artery Disease (PAD)

ACTC's HG is probably the best agent to heal this. All they need is time and money. There are 8 million Americans who has this. After this you will have the Cardio Muscles, as a target. But they can do both if they have enough money.
Cardio is probably 5-10x Larger than the PAD market.

Cuenca

[stemdynasty]

PAD- Peripheral Artery Disease Lack of blood flow which leads to ischemis which leads to amputation (a part of diabetes) which I know without hesitating Lanza wants those Geron patents, but only for diabetes.

[Ceasar de Cuenca]

PAD- Peripheral Artery Disease Lack of blood flow which leads to ischemis which leads to amputation (a part of diabetes) which I know without hesitating Lanza wants those Geron patents, but only for diabetes.

Our Blastomere Patent will cover our development when we go into diabetes. Off the top of my head, I think we also have some coverage on the other patents. Not sure about RPE. In the end, our Islets will probably be the best.

Cuenca